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AIER indicators fall to 29

Economy showing weakness.

AIER's Leading Indicators Index fell thirteen points to a reading of 29, the lowest level since August 2020. The latest reading is well below the neutral 50 threshold and is consistent with broadening weakness in the economy and significantly elevated risks for the outlook. The results underscore the recent advance estimate of second quarter real Gross Domestic Product, which showed a second consecutive, albeit small, quarterly decline. It should be noted that the advance estimate is based on preliminary and incomplete data and will likely be revised. Even if the estimate for the second quarter real GDP is revised to show growth, there is substantial and growing evidence of broadening weakness in the U.S. economy.

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